There's widespread concern that the credit crisis may be roaring back, with the equity markets plunging (all 3 major indexes lost about 3% today), oil topping $140, Citi in shambles, etc.
The TED spread is over 100bp, which indicates that the credit markets may be seizing up again. But the previous waves of the credit crisis all saw a very sudden and sharp increase in the TED spread. There was no real lead-up to the jump in the TED spread. By contrast, the current rise in the TED spread seems to be much more gradual.
Does that make a difference? I don't know—maybe, but probably not. We shall see in the next week or so. But when I looked at the 1-year TED spread chart, that was what immediately jumped out at me.
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