The Electoral Map

Everyone is trying to get a sense of where the electoral map stands before the general election really starts. I spent a lot of time with pollsters when I worked in D.C. (most of them are good people, contrary to popular belief), so I know roughly how this game is played. Here's how I'm breaking down the electoral map right now.

I'm not a huge fan of RealClearPolitics (could there be a stupider strategy than averaging polls?), but their broad electoral map is decent at this stage. The RCP map shows Obama with 228 electoral votes, McCain with 190, and 120 electoral votes up for grabs:


Which way are the swing states likely to go? For that, we have to look at the polls. Now, one of the most annoying thing campaigns do is cherry-pick polls. So to avoid cherry-picking polls, we should pick one polling outfit—presumably the best. SurveyUSA has been far and away the most accurate polling company this election season, so it's probably best to use SurveyUSA's polls. It's also important to limit ourselves to polls conducted relatively recently (say, in the past month) to make sure they reflect up-to-date public opinion.

So applying the SurveyUSA polls conducted in the swing states in the past month, here's what we get:

Virginia (13 EV) - Obama +7%
Missouri (11 EV) - Obama +2%
Wisconsin (10 EV) - Obama +6%
Ohio (20 EV) - Obama + 9

Michigan (17 EV) - McCain + 4%
North Carolina (15 EV) - McCain + 8%

New Mexico (5 EV) - Tie

Unfortunately, SurveyUSA hasn't conducted McCain vs. Obama polls in the other swing states in the past month. But even this limited snapshot is revealing.

Obama needs 42 of the 120 "toss-up" electoral votes to get to 270. The SurveyUSA results indicate that 54 of the 120 toss-up electoral votes are leaning Obama.

The bottom line: This is Obama's race to lose.